Assembly floor test would cost the Pilot camp dearly as Gehlot is in a comfortable position

The Rajasthan crisis is adopting deeper roots day by day with no possibility of any early reapproachment in sight despite the talks of Sonia, Priyanka n Rahul Gandhi trying to resurrect the complex situation n bringing rebellion Sachin Pilot in good terms with the party by decorating him with an important AICC post etc. THE REPORTS REGARDING Pilot’s talks with Ahmed Patel, P Chidambaram n even Priyanka Gandhi has not brought any fruitful results till yet and over it, the political aggression of Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot against Pilot branding him as an English speaking elite politician trying to topple his government in league with the BJP etc has worsened the already critical situation even more than before.

While the accusations n counter accusations are on full swing, between Sachin Pilot, Ashok Gehlot n the BJP with the latter demanding a CBI probe into the entire episode of supposed horse trading etc n revelation of the audio clip allegedly accusing a Congress rebel MLA n BJP central minister n a BJP leader of Rajasthan viz Bhanwarlal Sharma, Gajendra Singh Sekhavat and Jain, the Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot is desperately interested to convene the legislative assembly special session and seek the vote of confidence to close this chapter once for all at the earliest.

The chief minister Gehlot had met the governor of Rajasthan Kalraj Mishra on Saturday n deliberated with him for about forty minutes. He is believed to have requested to convene the special session of the assembly probably within a week’s time or earlier so as to seek the vote of confidence at the earliest.

However, the assembly can’t be convened till the case filed in Rajasthan high court is not decided at the earliest the hearing of which is due for Monday. In case the Assembly session goes for the vote of confidence, political analysts say that Sachin Pilot rebel group would be a sufferer by all means as it is today in a position of fix as per the regulations of anti defection law.

Being in the Congress party at present, they will have to present themselves in the Congress legislature party honouring the whip which will be issued during the confidence vote n before.

In case these rebel MLAs belonging to the Sachin Pilot group including himself defy the whip of the party they would not only be expelled from the Congress but will also lose their assembly membership as well.

This will give Ashok Gehlot government an added advantage as the strength of the house will be reduced from 200 to 81 and Ashok Gehlot being in good position having 103 MLAs presently as claimed by him would easily sail the troubled waters n win the confidence motion.

Moreover, if the rebel MLAs of Sachin Pilot who claim themselves in 21 numbers including the three independents, do not vote against Gehlot government or absent themselves during voting etc they would again invite losing the membership penalty, being bound by the anti defection rule. This leaves the Sachin Pilot group to support Gehlot further putting Pilot’s bete noire Gehlot in a more comfortable majority of 122. This way the condition of the Sachin Pilot group is quite awry n their leader does not know what to do or what not to do ?

Therefore they are currently banking on the court’s decision in this regard. The current party wise position of various political parties in Rajasthan is as under.

The Ashok Gehlot, Congress in Rajasthan has the total strength of 88 minus the Congress rebels, One Loktantrik, CPM MLA ( two) n two BTP MLAs n 11 independents are also with him making his total strength to 103 whereas the BJP with three independents has the total strength 75 twenty six short of Majority. Getting 103 means winning the confidence vote.

However it still remains to be seen as to what really would be the final decision of Sachin Pilot , as he has no option except submitting to Congress high command as he had already refused publicly to join the BJP.

It’s only after assessing the weak wicket of Sachin Pilot that the Congress high command is not giving much weightage to the rebel elitist leader especially Sonia, Rahul n Priyanka, leaving him to be dealt with by P Chidambaram or Ahmed Patel etc. ?